What Recession? Economist Urges Caution When Making Predictions

There are some reports that an American recession is looming. How would Michigan be affected?

When will the next recession arrive?

Well, there are a variety of factors to consider. There’s President Trump’s ever-changing tariff policy, so-called “leading indicators” in the market and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Ultimately though, those are just some of the classic signs for economists to look for, but for the rest of us, it’s hard to know when personal narratives or isolated announcements — like job cuts at General Motors — are indicative of something more.

Economics Professor Charles Ballard at Michigan State University joined Detroit Today’s Stephen Henderson about the state of Michigan’s economy and whether or not we are headed for a downturn. 

Click on the player above to hear the entire conversation with Professor Ballard.

Overall, things aren’t terrible, according to Ballard, but they’re not looking great either. “The economy is definitely not going gangbusters,” he says. “In the first half of this year — nothing. Employment in Michigan has been completely flat. I would love to say, ‘I know that the next recession is going to come in March of next year;’ [but] neither I nor any economist can predict these things with absolute certainty.” 

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  • Detroit Today
    Dynamic and diverse voices. News, politics, community and the issues that define our region. Hosted by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Stephen Henderson, Detroit Today brings you fresh and perceptive views weekdays at 9 am and 7 pm.