Michigan’s 12th Congressional District could impact voter margins in presidential race
With Michigan expected to come down to a narrow margin, turnout in the 12th District could have a broader impact beyond the congressional seat.
FILE - Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., speaks during a demonstration calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, Oct. 18, 2023, near the Capitol in Washington.
Michigan is anticipated to play a critical role in the upcoming presidential election, and the state’s 12th Congressional District could significantly impact voter margins.
The district — encompassing portions of Detroit, Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Southfield and more — is known to be heavily Democratic, with a large Middle Eastern population. It’s current representative is incumbent U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, who’s been very vocal about the government’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. She’s even called for a ceasefire and arms embargo.
Political analyst Dale Thomson, from the University of Michigan-Dearborn, says while Tlaib has not endorsed a candidate, her position could influence voter turnout.
“We’re looking at small margins of victory in the state of Michigan. Most likely for the… for whoever wins the president. And so every vote you can get matters,” Thomson said.
Tlaib headed a campaign to vote “uncommitted” during the primary in protest of the Biden administration’s continued support of Israel’s attacks in Gaza.
Thomson adds that if a significant amount of Tlaib’s constituents stick to staying uncommitted, or decide to vote for another candidate other than Harris, that could pose a problem in terms of margins of victory.
“In a heavily Democratic district, the Democrats want to turn out as many of those voters as possible so that they can overcome margins in the opposite direction in heavily Republican districts,” Thomson said.
Tlaib is running for reelection of her seat in the 12th District against Republican challenger James Hooper. He’s a political newcomer, whose rhetoric is very similar to presidential candidate Donald Trump’s, Thomson says.
“He is the sort of, what we might classify as an election denier,” Thomson said. “He’s very much focused on Second Amendment rights of pro-life. He advocates for abolishing the Department of Education.”
With Michigan expected to come down to a narrow margin, turnout in the 12th District could have a broader impact beyond the congressional seat, making it one to watch in the run-up to Election Day.
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The general election is taking place on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. For the latest election information, visit WDET’s Voter Guide at wdet.org/voterguide.
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