Political expert says conventions still matter

Political conventions are highly polished productions, but that wasn’t always so. The Democratic National Convention in 1968 was the last one with any real drama.

Matt Grossmann, director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, says the 2024 DNC mirrors the ’68 event in some ways.

“Superficially, there are some similarities,” he says. “It’s in Chicago, it’s going to have a lot of protests, and it involves a nominee who didn’t run in the primaries being elevated to the presidential position.”

Grossmann is referring to then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey. He won the Democratic nomination after President Lyndon Johnson decided not to run for a second full term. Humphrey faced division within the party, fueled by protests against the Vietnam War. He eventually lost to Republican nominee Richard Nixon.

Similar, but different

But Grossmann says Democrats are more united now than they were in ’68. President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the ticket in 2024. Grossmann says Biden’s support helped unify the party.

“The people who did not want Biden to step aside, I think, have quickly come around to Kamala Harris as the nominee,” he said.

Shortly after Biden’s endorsement, several potential challengers fell in line behind Harris, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Grossmann says party rules require that a candidate have the support of at least 300 delegates to be considered for nomination. He says Biden’s late departure from the race created a narrow window for someone other than Harris to run.

“There wasn’t really much of an opportunity for anyone else to contest the nomination without the rules changing substantially,” he said.

Conventions still matter

Harris and her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, had already won their nominations before their parties’ conventions began.

But Grossmann says conventions are still important. They give politicians seeking higher office a chance to boost their prospects on a national stage. He cites the 2004 DNC, where delegates heard from a young Illinois state lawmaker who won the presidential election four years later.

“The 2004 convention is when Barack Obama came to prominence,” Grossmann said. “So, they can make for rising stars.”

Maintaining momentum is hard

Grossmann says conventions do give candidates a short-term boost, but he expects the race to tighten before the November election.

“The average bump in the polls out of a convention has been three or four percentage points, but that bump has receded in the weeks following,” he said.

Polls had Harris leading Trump by an average margin of 3% going into the convention.

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