Terrorism expert says political violence likely ahead of November election

The threat of right-wing terrorism has risen steadily since the election of Donald Trump in 2016. It culminated with the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

With another election looming, the threat of more political violence is being amplified.

Jacob Ware is a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the co-author of the book “God, Guns, and Sedition: Far Right Terrorism in America.”

“We’re in quite a concerning moment for white supremacists and seditious organizing in this country,” Ware said. “We’ve actually seen far right terrorism accompany the last several elections — presidential and midterm elections in the U.S.”

Those far right actions included threats against election workers and demonstrations by white nationalist groups like the Proud Boys and Oathkeepers.

Several members of those groups were convicted of seditious conspiracy for the Jan. 6 attacks. Once, where there was bipartisan agreement condemning the attacks on the nation’s Capitol, the rhetoric has shifted into a political divide.

“That narrative has been steadily eroded into a narrative whereby the prisoners from Jan. 6 are political prisoners. They are heroes. They are martyrs. They are hostages. Most recently, they were described as as warriors,” Ware said.

“I think the swing state nature of Michigan makes violence more likely.” – Jacob Ware, “God, Guns, and Sedition: Far Right Terrorism in America” co-author

Last weekend, the extremist group Patriot Front rallied in Nashville. On social media, Republican U.S. Sen. Mike Lee of Utah called it a “false flag” — claiming without evidence that the federal government was behind the rally to make conservatives look bad.

Ware stated that’s a long-standing tactic of the far right following calls to violence.

“When those acts of violence actually occur, they…hide behind this shield of claiming it’s a false flag. We see it with mass shootings…and we saw it after Jan. 6 — primarily blaming Antifa for the attack, but also claiming that the FBI had kind of incited that riot,” Ware explained.

Detroit’s then-named TCF Center was at the center of aggressive protests by Trump supporters and false claims of interference after the November 2020 election. There was also a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer that was uncovered that same year. The state could again be the source of more political unrest.

“I think the swing state nature of Michigan makes violence more likely, in part because places like Michigan will be perceived to be the areas where any any malfeasance is is occurring,” Ware said. “It will be perceived as the epicenter for any theft of the election.”

Despite the increased likelihood for violence during this election cycle, Ware doesn’t believe a civil war is likely.

“In the 1860s, the civil war that struck the United States was divided relatively neatly on geographic lines, north and south. Now the divisions that characterize this moment are more urban and rural,” explained Ware.

A proper analogue may be found in Europe.

“The comparison that [God, Guns and Sedition co-author] Bruce [Hoffman] and I have used in our work is the Troubles conflict in Northern Ireland, where you have sustained…widespread violence targeting both civilian populations and the government. And this could come, frankly, from both sides of the spectrum.”