Michigan’s 10th Congressional race is a rematch of nation’s third-closest election

In 2022, the election in Michigan’s 10th Congressional District — which includes southern Macomb County, Rochester and Rochester Hills — was the third-closest U.S. House race in the nation.

This year features a rematch between first-term Republican Congressman John James and Democratic challenger Carl Marlinga.

But the big difference this time is that the contest is taking place during an extremely tight presidential election.

Related: Michigan’s 10th Congressional District candidates answer questions about their political priorities

Incumbent James says he’s fighting for manufacturing

At a recent meeting of the Detroit Economic Club, the conversation centered on the candidates for the White House. And the announcers brought up an unusual choice for a potential future presidential contender.

“There is a guy in the audience who maybe should take it. And his name’s John James. Ready for that John?”

From the audience, a lone voice said definitively, “No!”

James is already busy on the campaign trail — defending the U.S. House seat he won by only 0.5 percentage points two years ago.

He says he’s doing it by supporting the major manufacturing base in his district, where a majority of voters twice chose Donald Trump. And on the House floor, James echoed the former president’s charge that Democrats are pushing regulations that would force automakers to build electric vehicles — a market they say is already dominated by China.

“I’d like to remind my colleagues that you don’t fight communism with communism,” James said. “And that’s exactly what this government takeover of our American automotive industry is. Nobody here is against battery electric vehicles. But we are against telling the American people what they can do with their money and when they can do it.”

James led the House effort to block the new standards.

The former combat pilot, who features an attack helicopter on his campaign logo, says he’s also done battle to protect two of the district’s mainstays: Selfridge Air National Guard Base and the U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM).

“I’m doing everything I can to make sure that we not only get a fighter mission here but we also get future missions here,” James said. “The economic impact that would happen from the closure of Selfridge would be devastating to the region. I got $75 million back in investment for TACOM just this past year. And so, I have been busy.”

James also delivered a speech at the Republican National Convention that criticized transgender women playing in women’s sports.

He’s leaned into a controversial campaign ad that ties James’ congressional opponent to a legal requirement that the government provide gender-affirming care to prisoners, as well as possibly provide information to children who want to know more about transitioning.

“No approaching children with gender-changing medication or inappropriate sexual material in the first, second and third grade, right? If you’re an adult in a free country and you’re not hurting anybody else, do you. But if you are talking about the children, we have a duty to make sure we protect the rights of parents and be pro-family.”

Challenger Marlinga says he knows the law and the district

Marlinga says he has no idea why the issue is even a topic in the 10th Congressional District campaign.

“It sounds like a bad Saturday Night Live spoof. If you’re a teacher, you know that you can’t give an aspirin to a child without the parent’s consent.”

As a former judge and prosecutor, Marlinga says he knows the law.

And he says Macomb County voters know him and his record, even if national Democratic Party officials did not when they basically ignored his congressional run two years ago.

Former Congressman Andy Levin declined to seek reelection in the newly redrawn district.

Marlinga says party officials believed if someone with the beloved name “Levin” thought they couldn’t win there, no Democrat could.

That changed after Marlinga almost won in 2022. Now, Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into the race.

That includes distributing flyers daily that counter one of James’ arguments against Marlinga that the former prosecutor once called the district’s auto plants part of a “dying industry.”

Marlinga says he was calling for car companies and parts suppliers to reinvent themselves for the 21st century.

“The auto supply business is decreased because of the way that cars are made nowadays,” he said. “The little dials and things that you would put on your dashboard, all of those are gone. It’s replaced by chips and computer screens. And so I would want to see more and more chip business here.”

Marlinga maintains he’s also a firm believer in electric vehicles and using clean energy sources.

He calls it a far better way to help the economy than trying to, as Trump often says, “Drill baby drill” for more fossil fuels.

“If the price of oil and gas goes up, the price of everything else goes up. We have to diversify our energy sources so that there’s enough of a threat from electric power to cause the oil and gas companies to finally realize that they can’t set the price wherever they want,” Marlinga said.

Voters’ views reveal a very tight contest

The Democratic challenger’s argument resonates with autoworker Eric McCrary.

He says he works at an electric vehicle plant, though he prefers hybrids himself.

But McCrary adds that after 30 years in the car industry, he also prefers Marlinga’s take on the district’s signature business.

“He already had my vote before I met him,” McCrary said. “I know John James. And every time there’s a Republican in the government I lose money. For some reason there’s not a whole lot of overtime, there’s not a lot of things going on in the plant. They run straight 40 hours.”

But there’s a much more mixed reaction in other parts of Macomb, like at the Dodge Park Coney Island in Sterling Heights, where political conversation almost comes with the menu.

Sitting in a booth with her husband, long-time voter Penny Dobbs says she and the rest of her half-dozen family members support James.

Dobbs says she worries about automakers making a major move towards electric vehicles.

“At first I was excited about it because I thought ‘jobs.’ We’re gonna get a lot more factories to build these batteries. But then I thought about power outages. Where you gonna go if you run out of energy in your car? So I am surprised at Marlinga’s view. And because of it he’s losing six votes,” Dobbs said.

A few tables away, Tracy Daniel says she’s always had concerns about excessive government spending.

And then, Daniel says, she saw James’ TV advertisements linking Marlinga to gender-change operations.

“I believe our medical insurance coverage will end up being affected in a really big way as cost if we start paying for transgender surgeries and things like that,” Daniel said. “That’s gonna affect people as a whole. If this stuff is true, that they will pay for it for people in prison and what have you, than that means taxpayers again have to pay for that. It’s all a trickle-down effect for me.”

But across the aisle, diner John Zuzga says he simply does not trust Republicans.

And he says he knows Marlinga very well.

“Carl Marlinga put me in jail. But I still like him, I’ll still vote for him,” Zuzga said.

Which side the rest of the electorate will support remains uncertain.

Just like the presidential election it often echoes, surveys show the race in the 10th Congressional District is still too close to call.