Support for Harris surging in key swing states ahead of DNC, polls show

This spring, Donald Trump had an advantage he couldn’t achieve in 2020 when he was running for reelection – a lead in the polls.

Buoyed by the lingering effects of two years of high inflation under the Biden Administration, polling in April, May and June consistently trended toward Trump. 

That could be why Biden’s campaign agreed to the earliest debate in presidential election history. But that attempt to flip the script did not go well — as calls for the 81-year-old incumbent to step aside only grew louder following his poor debate performance in June, during which he trailed off several times and gave multiple nonsensical answers. The questions surrounding the president’s age and viability were answered for many by the end of the night.

Behind the scenes, some Democrats immediately started to panic and worked to get the president to step down from the ticket. However, he kept campaigning, and Biden’s many supporters and defenders in the media sprang to his defense. 

On July 12, Biden came to Detroit for a rousing rally where he was met with supporters chanting “don’t you quit!” He was animated at the event, seeming to feed off of the crowd’s energy, and insisted he was staying in the race. 

“I’m running and we’re going to win,” he told the crowd.

Covering the rally that day, there seemed little chance that Biden would drop out.

The media momentum from that event was short-lived, though, as media attention rightfully focused the very next day on an the attempted assassination of Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania. The assassin’s bullet narrowly missed killing Trump, grazing his ear and drawing blood. One spectator died and two others were wounded in the shooting. 

The Republican National Convention took place in Milwaukee the following week. Trump announced his running mate – Ohio Senator JD Vance – and then he formally accepted the party’s nomination in a long speech on July 18. 

On the convention floor, Michigan GOP Delegate Bethany Wheeler said it was an emotional moment as Trump recalled the attempt on his life. 

“Just the emotion in the beginning, when he was talking about how serious everything was, it was very powerful,” Wheeler said. “You really remembering that was five days ago.” 

Three days later, Biden was out, and after some hurried discussions the party proceeded to make Vice President Kamala Harris the only candidate for the Democratic nomination — turning the presidential election on its head.

Michigan Congresswoman Debbie Dingell says she could sense the immediate sea change.

“There’s no question that there’s a new energy out there. You saw it in the rally when Vice President Harris made her first appearance in Michigan after having announced Governor Walz,” said Dingell. “You see it in the, when we organize and have kickoffs for door knocking and telephone banks, and you just see it when you’re out in the community at events, people come up and want to talk about it. They’re excited, and that’s good.” 

Dingell was the canary in the coal mine in 2016 – warning the Hillary Clinton campaign – and any other Democrat who would listen that Michigan was in play. 

“In 2016 I was in union halls, and I heard how people felt about trade and their jobs having been shipped overseas,” she said. “I hear an energy that I haven’t, quite frankly, seen in a while.” 

Listen: Support for Harris surging in key swing states ahead of DNC, polls show

United Auto Workers Region 1-A Director Laura Dickerson agrees.

“I had an opportunity in this region to walk the picket line with President Joe Biden, just down the street from here, and so we appreciate all that he’s done. But the biggest thing that he did, he stepped aside for this country, and he’s ignited a movement with Kamala Harris,” said Dickerson.

At the recent Harris-Walz rally at Detroit Metro Airport, Dingell made her thoughts clear.

“We got a lot of work to do. I feel a lot better than I did in 2016 at this time,” she said. “Donald Trump, you’re not going to win Michigan.”

For now, the polling supports that trend. 

“We are really seeing a completely different race up and down these critical swing states,” said Jessica Taylor, senate and governors editor for The Cook Political Report. “In our last polling in May, Trump was leading in every single swing state, and now Harris is either leading or tied in every swing state, except for Nevada.” 

Harris currently has a three-point lead on Trump in Michigan. That’s a five-point swing since May. The switch to the vice president has also opened up more paths to victory in the electoral college, according to Taylor. 

“But I mean, Michigan was a must-win for President Biden, I think you know, he was really down to the only plausible path he had was winning those blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,” said Taylor. “But now Harris, she’s competitive once again in Georgia and North Carolina and Arizona. So I think it opens up the map. So Michigan is not a must win, but you would absolutely like to have it.” 

Democratic voters are still in the honeymoon phase, and it’s possible this week’s Democratic National Convention could extend that bump. Dickerson says Harris – with her close ties to organized labor – can sustain that momentum. 

“I’m telling you, our membership is excited. They’re energized. They’re ready to go and support Kamala Harris,” she said.

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Michigan by 150,000 votes. Harris was on the ticket, but she wasn’t in the spotlight. With an improving economy and without the baggage of age, will voters connect with her like they did with Biden four years ago? Given the roller coaster of the past two months, Nov. 5 is both a short time for Harris to make her case, and a long way off. 

Read more:

• Dingell sees wave of excitement, protests coming at Democratic National Convention
• Favorable views of Kamala Harris have risen this summer heading into the DNC, AP-NORC poll shows
• How to watch the Democratic National Convention in Chicago