Sanders, Biden Push For Big Turnout in 2020 Michigan Primary
The candidates spent the weekend before the March 10 presidential primary crisscrossing the state. One observer says it comes down to getting their bases to vote.
For Michigan Democrats, the choice for president comes down to the two top contenders: former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
Both candidates spent a lot of time campaigning the weekend before Michigan’s March 10 primary election. All of the other candidates on the Democratic ballot have dropped out of the race, except Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. She has has not won any primaries or caucuses and has only a couple of pledged delegates so far.
“For Democrats, the only thing that matters is beating Donald Trump.” — Dave Dulio, Oakland U. Center for Civic Engagement
Sanders won the Michigan primary in 2016. Biden is campaigning on his support for the auto industry and the city of Detroit while he was vice president. Each man says he’s the best choice to defeat President Donald Trump, who won Michigan’s 16 electoral votes four years ago.
Political scientist Dave Dulio says it comes down to which candidate does a better of job of turning out their supporters.
“All elections hinge on turnout,” Dulio says. “Some of it is candidate-driven, some is excitement-driven.”
Click on the player above to hear WDET’s Pat Batcheller’s conversation with Dave Dulio, and read a transcript, edited for clarity, below.
Dulio is the director of Oakland University’s Center for Civic Engagement. He says whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have to do better in Wayne and Macomb counties in November than former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016.
“Clinton got 35,000 fewer votes in Macomb County than Barack Obama did in 2012,” Dulio says. “And Donald Trump got 35,000 more votes than Mitt Romney. Now, does that mean that there are 35,000 people in Macomb County that voted for Obama and then voted for Trump? No. But is it 5,000? 6,000? Absolutely.”
Despite the marked differences between Sanders and Biden on issues, Dulio says Democrats will rally around whomever wins the party’s nomination for one reason: Trump.
“For Democrats, the only thing that matters is beating Donald Trump,” Dulio says. “I don’t have any doubt that the other primary candidates will fall in line behind the eventual nominee.”
Related:
The DIA millage is up for renewal. Here’s what students, seniors who benefit think.
Michigan’s March 10 primary election: What’s on the ballot and how to vote.
Pat Batcheller, 101.9 FM, WDET: What does each candidate have to do to win the Michigan primary?
Dave Dulio, Oakland University professor: Well, at the end of the day, I think that both are looking to do the same thing: identify and turn out their supporters.
All elections hinge on turnout. And usually in a competitive race the side that finds their supporters and turns them out wins. Now, some of that is candidate-driven. Some of that is excitement-driven, sort of outside of individual candidate campaigns. But right now, Joe Biden’s got a chance to grab this nomination and wrestle it away from everybody else.
And it’s by winning in places like Michigan and gobbling up as many delegates to the national convention as he can in places like Michigan, which is pretty delegate-rich, the most delegate-rich state that will vote on March 10.
Which issues matter most to Michigan Democrats right now?
I think health care is at the top of the list across the country, for this Democratic primary and potentially even in the general election.
Donald Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in 2016. Polls have consistently shown both Sanders and Biden leading the president head-to-head. Of course, Hillary Clinton was also leading Trump right up to the end of the last campaign in this state. What does the eventual nominee have to do differently than Clinton to win Michigan’s 16 electoral votes?
Well, as you noted, the difference in Michigan in 2016 was less than 11,000 votes. You can find those votes a lot of different places here in Michigan, and I’ll give you two. First, Wayne County. Hillary Clinton got about 80,000 fewer votes out of Wayne County than Barack Obama did in 2012. That is a stunning number. That is turnout. That is excitement from the Democratic base that was simply not there for the Clinton campaign. Whether that was because she didn’t excite African-American voters, or whether that’s because she took Michigan for granted really doesn’t matter. It’s a simple fact that she got so many fewer votes out of Wayne County than she should have.
Macomb County is another. Clinton got 35,000 fewer votes than Barack Obama did in 2012. And Donald Trump got 35,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did in Macomb County alone. Now, does that mean that there are 35,000 people in Macomb County that voted for Obama and then voted for Trump? No. But is it 5,000? 6,000? Absolutely. So getting those working-class, blue-collar voters that have, in some respects, been a big part of the Democratic coalition for years is a key thing.
Whoever ends up winning the Democratic nomination will need help from the other’s supporters, especially if neither wins the majority of pledged delegates before the convention. What would it take to unite moderates and progressives and avoid what could be an ugly floor fight?
Two words: Donald Trump. For Democrats, the only thing that matters is beating Donald Trump. I think that that is at the top of the vast majority, if not all, Democrats across the country. So it’s about finding the best path to beating Trump, and I don’t have any doubt that the other primary candidates will fall in line behind the eventual nominee.
Support the news you love.
Here at WDET, we maintain our journalistic integrity through independent support from readers like you. Because you value WDET as your source of news, music, and conversation, please make a gift today.
