The coronavirus pandemic has consumed public attention in recent months. But as summer nears, presidential campaigns are set to ramp up for the November election.
“In our new American politics there are four characteristics: age race, gender and education.” — Doug Sosnik, political advisor
Much has been made about polling in states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, however a former Clinton White House official says the nation’s changing demographics and politics could produce a very different outcome than we’ve seen in the recent past.
Listen: Evolving Demographics Have Changed America’s Political Map
Doug Sosnik, White House political director during President Bill Clinton’s successful re-election race, says that the political re-alignment calcifying today began in the 1990s.
“In our new American politics there are four characteristics: age race, gender and education. That realignment is driving politics in our country,” says Sosnik. Younger, non-white, highly educated people lean increasingly Democrat according to Sosnik. Education, he says, has evolved into one of the most important determinants in someone’s voting behavior, with less educated people heavily favoring Trump.
Movement of younger, non-white, educated populations into various states have altered conventional ideas about what is winnable for Democrats and Republicans. These shifting demographics have put states like Arizona, once a solid red state, into play for Democrats.
“I think it will be very difficult for Biden to win if he doesn’t win Michigan and he’ll probably need Pennsylvania. And the third state is Arizona, due to changing demographics,” says Sosnik.